Inflation Determinants in Sudan, 1970-2009, Dr. Mustafa Mohamed Abdalla, Senior Researcher, Policies, Research and Statistics Department

  1. Contents
  2. ABSTRACT
  3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
    • The equation of the exchange
    • Inflation and money growth in Sudan 1970-2008
    • Monetary and Output Expansion in the Sudan (1995-2008)
  4. SINGLE EQUATION MODEL :
    • Sudan inflation, exchange rate and foreign inflation
    • Single equation model results
    • AR (1) model results
    • White Heteroskedasticity Test:
    • Short term exchange rate versus (head, core and imported inflation)
  5. STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL (SVAR):
    • Structural vector autoregressive model excluding foreign inflation
    • Structural vector autoregressive model excluding the exchange rate
    • SV AR variance decomposition
    • SV AR Impulse responses
  6. ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM):
    • ADF, PP tests of staionarity
    • ECM results
    • ECM-Impulse responses
    • ECM- Variance decomposition
    • Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
  7. FISCAL DOMINANCE MODEL:
    • EXCHANGE RATE VARIATIONS, MONEY GROWTH AND
    • SEIGNORAGE
    • The GARCH (1, 1) Model
    • ARCH Test
    • ADF, PP tests of stationarity of fiscal dominance model
    • Fiscal dominance ECM
    • Fiscal dominance impulse responses
    • Fiscal dominance: inflation variance decomposition
    • CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS:
  8. REFERENCES:
    • APPENDIX (1) MATRIX OF POLICY MEASURES REQUIRED TO CONTAIN INFLATION
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