Inflation Determinants in Sudan, 1970-2009, Dr. Mustafa Mohamed Abdalla, Senior Researcher, Policies, Research and Statistics Department
- Contents
- ABSTRACT
- CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
- The equation of the exchange
- Inflation and money growth in Sudan 1970-2008
- Monetary and Output Expansion in the Sudan (1995-2008)
- SINGLE EQUATION MODEL :
- Sudan inflation, exchange rate and foreign inflation
- Single equation model results
- AR (1) model results
- White Heteroskedasticity Test:
- Short term exchange rate versus (head, core and imported inflation)
- STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL (SVAR):
- Structural vector autoregressive model excluding foreign inflation
- Structural vector autoregressive model excluding the exchange rate
- SV AR variance decomposition
- SV AR Impulse responses
- ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM):
- ADF, PP tests of staionarity
- ECM results
- ECM-Impulse responses
- ECM- Variance decomposition
- Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
- FISCAL DOMINANCE MODEL:
- EXCHANGE RATE VARIATIONS, MONEY GROWTH AND
- SEIGNORAGE
- The GARCH (1, 1) Model
- ARCH Test
- ADF, PP tests of stationarity of fiscal dominance model
- Fiscal dominance ECM
- Fiscal dominance impulse responses
- Fiscal dominance: inflation variance decomposition
- CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS:
- REFERENCES:
- APPENDIX (1) MATRIX OF POLICY MEASURES REQUIRED TO CONTAIN INFLATION
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